TL;DR
- Identity is the new perimeter: Move to passkeys and phishing-resistant MFA; deploy ITDR to detect stolen tokens, risky OAuth consents, and mailbox-rule bursts.
- AI reshapes attack & defense: Add human-in-the-loop verification for money/data/access changes; measure time-to-enrich and time-to-contain, not just time-to-detect.
- SaaS supply chain is the quiet risk: Enforce “no owner, no app,” limit scopes, auto-expire dormant grants, and correlate consent events with admin/mail changes.
- Crypto, data, and compliance go continuous: Plan PQC migrations for long-lived secrets; map data by region/label; automate evidence for DORA/SBOM/identity governance.
- Skills beat shortages: Run quarterly role-based skill checks; upskill on identity architecture, detection engineering, SSPM; use scenario triggers to pre-decide first moves.
Across the next ten years, cybersecurity will be shaped less by headline exploits and more by slow, structural shifts: identity as the control plane, automation on both sides of the glass, data rules that redraw architecture, and skills that determine who can keep up. Our aim isn’t to admire trends - it’s to translate them into decisions. Below you’ll find twelve predictions for the next decade, each tied to concrete actions you can take today, and a scenario playbook to help you respond when early indicators like passkey defaults, consent spikes, insurer demands, copilot rollouts, tip from possibility to reality.
12 Cybersecurity Predictions For the Next Decade
1) Passwords become the exception, not the rule
By the early 2030s, passkeys and device-bound credentials will dominate mainstream logins across consumer and enterprise SaaS. Attackers will still phish, but the highest return will shift to consent phishing, token theft, and session hijacking rather than credential replay. The adoption curve is already steep: 74% of consumers are aware of passkeys, 69% have enabled them on at least one account, and among people who’ve used them, 38% turn them on whenever possible. Perceptions are moving with practice - 53% say passkeys are more secure and 54% say they’re more convenient than passwords.
These signals, along with major platforms making passkeys a default experience, point to a decade where identity defenses focus less on password hygiene and more on detecting abused tokens, risky OAuth consents, and session anomalies.
What to do now: Establish a three-phase passkey program (high-risk users → broad workforce → long-tail apps), publish legacy-auth deprecation dates, and tie help-desk scripts to device-trust and step-up checks.
Framework anchors: NIST PR.AC-1/PR.AC-7; CIS 5 (Account Mgmt), 6 (Access Control Mgmt); ISO A.5.15 Access control, A.5.18 Access rights, A.8.16 Monitoring activities.
2) Identity becomes the durable perimeter
Identity Threat Detection & Response (ITDR) will be table stakes. Governance for OAuth apps and service principals becomes an audit item, not a “nice to have.” Insurers and regulators increasingly ask how much phishing-resistant auth you run and how you detect stolen tokens - not just “do you have MFA?”
What to do now: Treat app registrations and service principals as first-class identities with owners, lifecycles, and quarterly reviews. Centralize Identity Provider (IdP)/ Software-as-a-Service (SaaS)/email audit logs, and build detections for consent spikes, mailbox-rule bursts, and token anomalies.
Framework anchors: NIST ID.AM-2, PR.AC-4, DE.CM-1/DE.AE-1; CIS 1 (Asset Inventory), 8 (Audit Log Mgmt), 15 (Service Provider Mgmt); ISO A.5.9 Inventory of information and other associated assets, A.8.16 Monitoring activities.
3) AI accelerates both offense and defense
Adversaries will automate recon and social engineering (e.g., deepfake voice/video), while defenders use SOC copilots to enrich identity/endpoint/SaaS signals and draft responses. The economics are shifting fast: the AI-in-cybersecurity market is projected to grow from just over $30B in 2024 to roughly $134B by 2030, signaling rapid adoption on both sides. In parallel, over two-thirds of IT and security professionals had already tested AI capabilities for security in 2024 (with another 27% planning to) and 70% say AI is effective at detecting previously undetectable threats. Offensively, AI is already shaping the threat mix: about 40% of phishing emails are now AI-generated, and victim rates for AI-crafted lures remain comparable to traditional campaigns, underscoring why process controls and verification matter.
What to do now: Define where AI will and won’t act (decision-support vs. decision-making), add out-of-band verification for money/data/access changes, and measure time-to-enrich and time-to-contain (not just time-to-detect).
Framework anchors: NIST DE.AE-2, RS.AN-1, RS.MI-1, PR.IP-3; CIS 8 (Audit Log Mgmt), 17 (Incident Response Mgmt); ISO A.5.23 Information security for use of cloud services, A.8.16 Monitoring activities, A.5.24 Data leakage prevention.
4) Post-quantum cryptography moves from pilot to program
Between 2026 and 2030, long-lived secrets (backups, code-signing, VPNs) begin migrating to NIST-approved post-quantum algorithms. Early movers will use hybrid schemes and staged rotations; suppliers will arrive unevenly.
What to do now: Inventory cryptography (where, who, shelf life), start with hybrid key exchange/signatures in the riskiest flows, and add PQC clauses to vendor contracts.
Framework anchors: NIST PR.DS-1/PR.DS-2, ID.RA-1, PR.IP-1/PR.IP-3; CIS 3 (Data Protection), 4 (Secure Configurations), 15 (Service Provider Mgmt); ISO A.8.24 Use of cryptography, A.5.19 Information security in supplier relationships.
5) SaaS supply-chain and app-to-app abuse dominate “quiet” breaches
Attackers prefer OAuth grants and service-to-service flows that look like business as usual. The governance burden shifts to SSPM-style visibility and “no owner, no app” enforcement.
What to do now: Turn on consent workflows, limit risky scopes by policy, auto-expire dormant grants, and correlate consent events with admin actions and mailbox changes.
Framework anchors: NIST ID.SC-1..5 (Supply Chain), PR.AC-4, DE.CM-7; CIS 15 (Service Provider Mgmt), 6 (Access Control Mgmt); ISO A.5.19 Supplier relationships, A.5.15 Access control.
6) Data sovereignty fragments architectures
Regulators continue to push for regional processing and attestation. That drives multi-region identity controls, label-driven access, and “policy-as-code” for residency and deletion. Trend work for 2025+ anticipates resilience and regulatory operationalization - expect this to intensify globally.
What to do now: Maintain a live data map (system, region, label), enforce geo-aware access in conditional policy, and make deletion/retention auditable.
Framework anchors: NIST ID.GV-3 (Legal/Regulatory), PR.DS-1/PR.DS-5, PR.IP-5; CIS 3 (Data Protection); ISO A.5.13 Classification of information, A.5.34 Privacy and protection of PII, A.8.10 Information deletion.
7) OT/IoT becomes a mainstream security program, not a special project
Cyber-physical incidents won’t be rare headlines; they’ll be part of risk registers in healthcare, manufacturing, logistics, and energy. Insurance pricing and sector guidance push inventory and segmentation as non-negotiables.
What to do now: Stand up an asset catalog that includes “unsafe by design” devices, segment ruthlessly, and run joint tabletops with Safety/Facilities.
Framework anchors: NIST ID.AM-1 (asset inventory), ID.AM-2, PR.PT-3 (least functionality/segmentation); CIS 1 (Enterprise Asset Inventory), 12 (Network Infrastructure Mgmt); ISO A.8.1 User endpoint devices, A.8.22 Segregation of networks.
8) Space and near-earth infrastructure enter the enterprise threat model
LEO connectivity and ground segment dependencies grow. Expect new vendor diligence patterns and incident-communication drills that include satellite outages and spoofing/routing concerns (especially for global supply chains).
What to do now: Add satellite/ground providers to third-party risk reviews and rehearse continuity plans where those links are critical.
Framework anchors: NIST ID.SC-2 (Supplier risk), ID.RA-3 (Threats), RC.RP-1 (Recovery planning); CIS 15 (Service Provider Mgmt), 11 (Data Recovery); ISO A.5.19 Supplier relationships, A.5.30 ICT readiness for business continuity.
9) Privacy-enhancing tech gets operationalized
Synthetic data (artificially generated data that mimics the patterns and structure of real datasets, used for testing, model training, and analytics while reducing privacy risk), TEEs (hardware-backed secure areas of a processor that run code and handle data in isolation, protecting it from the rest of the system—even if the OS is compromised), and federated learning (a way to train a shared machine-learning model across many devices or organizations without moving raw data to a central server; only model updates/gradients are shared, preserving privacy) move from pilot to practice in analytics pipelines where cross-border or sensitive use is unavoidable. Foresight work suggests this is a key enabler for innovation under heavier regulation.
What to do now: Pick one high-value analytics workflow and pilot a PET that reduces exposure while preserving utility; add privacy metrics to product reviews.
Framework anchors: NIST PR.DS-1/PR.DS-2, PR.IP-8 (Data protection processes); CIS 3 (Data Protection); ISO A.8.24 Use of cryptography, A.5.34 Privacy and protection of PII.
10) Cyber insurance becomes prescriptive and evidence-driven
Policies increasingly require specific control/evidence bundles (identity posture, detection coverage, response timing) and may price coverage off your telemetry quality, not just questionnaires. Persistent “threats going strong” analyses foreshadow the shift from checkbox to proof.
What to do now: Maintain a quarterly, one-page results snapshot with posture deltas, detection coverage (mapped to ATT&CK), first-hour report rates, and links to exports/screenshots.
Framework anchors: NIST ID.GV-1/ID.GV-3 (Governance & legal), DE.DP-4 (Detection processes tested), RS.IM-1 (Improvements); CIS 8 (Audit Log Mgmt), 17 (Incident Response Mgmt); ISO A.5.1 Policies for information security, A.8.16 Monitoring activities.
11) “Continuous compliance” becomes the norm
Disclosure rules, resilience mandates (DORA-style), SBOM attestations, and identity governance are no longer events; they’re ongoing. Gartner emphasizes business-resilience framing for security programs - expect audit to look more like operations.
What to do now: Keep a living controls-to-evidence map, automate exports where possible, and align change-management to attestations (identity, logging, SBOM ingestion).
Framework anchors: NIST ID.GV-2/ID.GV-3, PR.IP-1/PR.IP-10 (Configuration & change), RS.CO-1/2 (Comms); CIS 2 (Software Inventory), 4 (Secure Configurations); ISO A.5.1 Policies, A.5.36 Compliance with legal requirements, A.8.9 Configuration management.
12) The talent model shifts from hiring to upskilling
Labor markets won’t magically fill; teams that win cultivate internal talent with hands-on assessments and micro-credentials tied to tasks (detection engineering, IR playbooks, identity architecture). Workforce futures research expects uneven progress; closing the “cyber poverty line” inside organizations will require deliberate upskilling.
What to do now: Run quarterly, role-based skill checks and target labs to close gaps; connect those efforts to risk objectives (e.g., reduce time-to-contain for identity incidents).
Framework anchors: NIST PR.AT-1..5 (Awareness & Training); CIS 14 (Security Awareness & Skills Training); ISO A.6.3 Information security awareness, education and training.
Scenario Playbook
Rather than a single timeline, use scenarios to guide early decisions. These futures can coexist; treat them as layers and watch for the early indicators that your environment is drifting that way.
Scenario A — Passwordless Majority
- What it looks like: Passkeys are default, legacy auth is rare, phishing shifts to tokens/consents.
- Signals: Default passkeys in your top SaaS, device-bound credentials in wide use, insurer questionnaires ask for phishing-resistant share.
- First moves when signals flip: Deprecate legacy protocols on a schedule; roll passkeys to the most phished groups first; add ITDR detections for consent spikes and token misuse.
Scenario B — Identity Fragmentation
- What it looks like: Multi-cloud + sprawling SaaS + M&A yields many tenants/IdPs; risk clusters in OAuth apps and service principals.
- Signals: CMDB vs. SSO inventory mismatches; double-digit % of apps without owners; incidents show valid-account/app-to-app pivots.
- First moves: “No owner, no app”; quarterly SP/consent review; stream IdP/SaaS/email logs into SIEM/XDR and light up cross-tenant correlations.
Scenario C — AI-Accelerated Offense, Augmented Defense
- What it looks like: Deepfake-enabled fraud and automated recon vs. SOC copilots that compress triage and containment.
- Signals: Measurable increases in deepfake/social-engineering attempts; vendors shipping admin/security copilots; teams tracking time-to-enrich/contain.
- First moves: Human-in-the-loop policy for automation; out-of-band verification for high-risk changes; instrument copilot use cases (identity event enrichment, policy linting).
How to use the playbook: pick 3–5 signals per scenario, define trigger thresholds (“If 3 of top-5 SaaS enable passkeys by default → deprecate passwords for 40% of users within 2 quarters”), and pre-decide the first two actions so you move fast when the world tilts.
Skills that map to the decade (and where Cybrary helps)
Across all predictions, the same capability families recur: identity architecture & policy, ITDR and detection engineering, SaaS governance (SSPM), post-quantum migration basics, incident response with automation, and audit-ready evidence packs. Use Cybrary’s role-based paths and hands-on labs to build those muscles; if a scenario trigger flips, enroll the affected teams in the relevant modules.
