# Part 8 Words of Estimation Probability

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Time
3 hours 1 minute
Difficulty
CEU/CPE
3
Video Transcription
00:03
so after talking about analytic confidence assessments,
00:08
is worth expanding a little bit into the idea of words
00:11
of estimated probability or wept. This relates to future events. And as we can see, there is a nice scale here, showing
00:21
a, uh, a certainty scale
00:24
with some very obvious, uh, labels
00:27
all the way down to you from 0% of the impossible level
00:32
to certainly not, probably not probable warm will start and certain
00:37
thes comm provide valuable input. When you're trying to make sure that the conclusion has the right waiting associated with it, you wouldn't want to make it seem like it's a simple yes or no consideration. So Sherman Kent in 1964 developed
00:55
01:04
and we see some examples here of policy and intelligence failures. Related
01:11
two words of estimated probability,
01:14
and this is gamble. Here we're seeing a mention of bin Laden terrorist attack information or attacks upon and embassies.
01:26
So because of the nature of when the information comes out and who says it
01:32
who provides it, what confidence or assurances provided by
01:37
their their actions and their reputation
01:40
that could affect the ability of the consumer of the information to interpret it correctly and be able to use it as as it was intended.
01:51
There's also some relevant used for medicine and so on.
01:56
But, uh, any of these methods would be useful.
02:00
Really. What we see here with with this chart
02:05
is a, uh
02:07
what I would I would I would term a semi quantitative measuring scale
02:12
because you've got words
02:13
like probable? Probably not, and so on.
02:15
But then there are ranges that are given numeric ranges in this case, percentages
02:22
to show that
02:23
between impossible and almost certainly not. There's, ah 7%
02:28
variation there,
02:30
23% between Probably not, and almost certainly not.
02:34
So if you're at the lower end of almost certainly not, you can say OK, we want to give or take about 5% at this level.
02:42
As you get to the larger differences between the middle levels than the plus or minus, swing goes up to 10%
02:53
up all the way up to 12% at the probable level.
02:57
This way, there's a little bit of extra leeway for saying that this is the proper label.
03:04
For instance, if
03:06
if you were at 50%. And you thought, you know, plus reminds 10%. Maybe you're thinking plus 10%. So you might be higher at 60.
03:15
I still a, uh,
03:19
put you in the range of probable
03:21
because probable could go, You know, from 75 down to 63. So soon as you get a little bit above 60. Now, you're in the probable range to see how this work. It's a little bit of wiggle room
03:34
to make sure that your estimate or your words of estimated probability are not misinterpreted.
03:39
And having a guide like this to show the percentage of certainty would certainly be helpful to the intelligence consumer.
03:49
All right, that gets us to the end of module three.
03:52
I hope you'll stay tuned for Model four. Thank you.
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